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Guatemalans Press "Panic", Want Out Of October Referendum
Thu, March 14, 2013
October 6, 2013 - we all have it marked on our calendars as the date for the referendum on whether or not Belizeans will choose to go to the ICJ to settle our territorial dispute with Guatemala.

But tonight, it looks like it may not happen - not on October the sixth, at least. And that's because the Guatemalans want to postpone it. According to a bulletin sent out yesterday from the office of the Guatemalan President, Otto Perez Molina, Guatemala proposes to change the date for the referendum.

Now, this is no simple undertaking; it is a big deal, a very big deal - and it has forced an emergency meeting with the Secretary General of the OAS in Washington on Monday. That's because - according to the President, the Guatemalans don't want to unilaterally change the date, they want a joint decision. But, that's not going to be easy to get because the Belize side hasn't blinked, meaning it remains firmly committed to the process for October of this year. Half an hour ago, the CEO in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Alexis Rosado gave us his reaction:

Alexis Rosado - CEO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Via Phone)
"Well, we're not entirely surprise. We know that they have been having difficulties internally. What is surprising is that, at that level you raised it."

Jules Vasquez
"You mean like at a press conference?"

Alexis Rosado
"Well, yes because if it's something that they're bringing to a meeting then we would expect that would bring it and we will discuss it. I understand they want to discuss it, and that's one of the things we're going to discuss in Washington."

Jules Vasquez
"The fact that he mentioned it at a press conference, is that indicative of the fact that we know that the president of being under pressure in his own country for the cost of the referendum and what they feel - what they feel is in prospect of success because of Belize's Prohibitive referendum threshold?"

Alexis Rosado
"Well it can't have anything to do with us. They would have to take care of their internal affairs and so would we. So I don't see how our own domestic and national legislation, rules and procedures can be affecting them."

Jules Vasquez
"However, if one reads the language of his statement, the clear impression that he is trying to give is that, well because Belize has this stipulation upon its referendum, that there must be 60% participation, well if that is the case, then we best postpone until 2014."

Alexis Rosado
"Well I wouldn't want to interpret what has been said over there, I'm sure you were talking to his domestic constituencies."

Jules Vasquez
"This appears to be a major consequential event. We have been heading inexorably towards this date for the past 5 years almost, and now suddenly we're told that - now suddenly they are saying in public - first of all in public, that well, maybe we will have to postpone it for a year. Is this an indication that the entire process is in imminent jeopardy of being of being derailed?"

Alexis Rosado
"Did they say for a year?"

Jules Vasquez
"Well they said until 2014, they did not say for a year. It would be 3 months."

Alexis Rosado
"Well, the important thing is that they do recognize and as they must, that it's a joint agreement, and this special agreement was signed by both countries. The date was also agreed by both countries, and any change in any of them will have to be done by both countries."

Jules Vasquez
"Yes, but are we prepare to make a decision to postpone along with the Guatemalans?"

Alexis Rosado
"Well, Jules, at this time we are committed to what we have agreed to, as is the norm. We commit to something, we keep and abide to what we commit and agree to. We are in a process that will lead us up to the 6th of October."

Jules Vasquez
"Sir, is the Referendum process on life support or is it in serious jeopardy tonight?"

Alexis Rosado
"No, no, no, I wouldn't go that far, it is definitely matter of concern, definitely a matter of concern because we've come a long way to get to this point, and any attempt at trying to change it and trying to adjust it, of course we'll have to look at it very seriously."

And while Rosado was diplomatic, the background to the Guatemalan announcement is that flatly, The Guatemalan President is under intense domestic pressure. First off, his government estimates that the referendum will cost their government 50 million US Dollars; that's 32 million on an education campaign, and 18 million on the actual day of the election.

Second, opposition parties in Guatemala are now beginning to put pressure on the Government for agreeing to a joint referendum with Belize - when our referendum law is very different from theirs; in Belize a 60% minimum voter turnout is required to legitimize a referendum.

And that's why it now seems the Guatemalans are trying to blame Belize for what was the law of the land before the special agreement was signed in late 2008. The Guatemalans are saying in their official release that if the Belizean law cannot be changed, then they'd prefer to postpone the referendum to sometime in 2014. Seasoned observers feel that if it is postponed, that's just a diplomatic way of abandoning it altogether - because who's to say that in 2014 they wont seek another postponement?

So that's where it stands tonight, with the October 6, 2013 referendum date - and indeed the entire process - very imperiled. We'll keep following it as developments lead to the Sunday meeting in Washington.

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