The UDP hopes it can re-claim the seat which it controlled consistently up until 1998 - while the PUP is hoping to hold on in an area where they currently have no elected standard bearer. Making it harder for the PUP is the fact that the outgoing standard bearer Joseph Mahmud will clearly not help his successor, whoever that will be. How do we know that? Well, he didn't tell his party leader he was resigning, and the party leader says that he didn't even tell his committee. At a press briefing at Independence Hall this morning, Opposition Leader Fonseca admitted to being caught off guard:..

Jules Vasquez
"Is it something that you might have expected or were you caught off guard?"

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"Yes I would say that I was not anticipating that that would happen. If it were to happen I thought it would may have happen later on and not so quickly."

Jules Vasquez
"I am told that he felt somewhat disrespected by yourself in various exchanges and that after he inform the party of his resignation as standard bearer, that he felt you all didn't even reach out to him."

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"I absolutely cannot point to any incident, any evidence - there is no evidence to support such a suggestion that I have disrespected Mr. Mahmud."

Reporter
"One of the reasons why Mahmud did what he did was because he had come to you and brought to you several complaints about the Western Caucus, particularly Mr. Julius Espat who heads the Western Caucus and that you have address none of his concerns, none of his complaints and it was a mere frustration - a move out of frustration because you haven't address concerns. This hasn't come directly from him, but from people around him."

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"Yeah, I think I responded to that in a sense earlier. I've had many discussions with Mr. Mahmud, if you get frustrated because I don't do what you want me to do - that can't be my problem. The issue of adjustment of the Western Caucus, the structure of the Western Caucus was something I discussed at length with Mr. Mahmud. He was the chairman at the time, I discussed at length with him and I made it clear to him that I felt that moving in this direction was in the best interest of the party and of him because he felt overwhelm as an area representative and I though he needed to focus his attention and efforts on his work as an area representative, so I believe I have always been very fair, very open with Mr. Mahmud. So I can't account for his frustration. I made it very clear to Mr. Mahmud at the time that he stepped down as standard bearer, that this is serious business. I take the work of this party very seriously and when we make decisions we have deal with the consequences of those decisions. I made it very clear to him, once you make the decision that you are not going to seek re-election, the party will move forward, I will move forward and in fact that is where we are today moving forward. Yes disappointed that Mr. Mahmud had resign from the national assembly and I think his decision to do so, let me make it clear, his decision to do so without consulting the party, without informing the party, without informing his executive in Cayo North, I think reflects poorly on him and I view that as disrespectful to the party."

Geovannie Brackett, reporter
"You think that he is a traitor, you think that he was bought out?"

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"I am not in a position at all to make any such suggestion at all. I am certainly not prepared to go there at all."

Reporter
"They are stating all sorts of things that the party is falling apart, that it reflects on your leadership. Are you concerned at all in terms of the perception out there because of this resignation, particularly because he didn't inform you?"

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"Everything that happens in the People's United Party reflects on the leader and reflects on the state of the party, so yes we would not have wanted Mr. Mahmud to resign. I wanted him to serve out his term with integrity and dignity and working on behalf of the people of Cayo North as best as possible given the challenges, but he made a decision, I've already said that I feel that that decision he made reflects poorly on him and that's where I think it stands - it reflects poorly on him. I don't think it reflects poorly on us as a party."

And so while Fonseca has, rightly or wrongly, transferred the shame and blame to Mahmud - the truth is, he's out of the picture - and he has no election to win or lose. Right now, the pressure is on the PUP to hold unto Cayo North - and as we've clearly laid out, it will be a challenge. First off, the party has no candidate in place - but it does have two eager aspirants, Attorney Michel Chebat and businessman Richard Harrison. Fonseca discussed their chances this morning:..

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"And the party will now fast track that process of selecting a candidate. Later this week we will have a national executive meeting of the People's United Party and how we proceed in Cayo North will be a major topic for discussion and deliberation and decision exactly how we will proceed, but we are preparing for and anticipating obviously a very early election - that is to the advantage of the United Democratic Party and through to form, they will exploit every advantage that they have. So we have to look forward to a very early election, probably very early in January. And yes we have no choice but to be prepared. We have to be prepared. As I am very optimistic, I am very hopeful because we have very good candidates. We lost a candidate, but out of crisis, out of challenge comes opportunity sometimes and this is how I view it. We have an opportunity now to replace Mr. Mahmud with candidates who are certainly, equally good, some would say, better candidates, but we have an opportunity to do that - to offer to the people of Cayo North very good credible, quality candidates."

Jules Vasquez
"Will the party prevail upon one of the candidates and encourage them to stand because there is just no time for a convention or money?"

Hon. Francis Fonseca, Leader of the Opposition
"Yeah, you are obviously a political strategist Jules, you've learnt a lot over the years from being around the political parties - yes that's an option. I think certainly an option, but that is the purpose of us having a meeting later this week to discuss all those options, to discuss the best way forward as I said, but that certainly has to be on the table. Absolutely has to be on the table. Is it in our best interest to simply endorse one of the two candidates who have applied and move forward with that candidate, given the urgency and the time, the very short timeframe that exist. And then we have to engage in a very intensive 4-5-6 week's campaign in Cayo North. We will never be able to challenge the UDP when it comes to money, they are rolling in serious money as you know, but we have to put up a very strong, spirited campaign."

And even though that press conference was held before the by-election date was announced, he did have his timing just about right - it will be a 7 week campaign - that's if you start today - which the UDP did. Party leader Dean Barrow has deployed key ministers and their available resources to Cayo North -where voters can expect to be showered with Petrocaribe goodies between now and the election.