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GDP Down For Second Quarter
Wed, August 26, 2015

And while the unemployment figure is down – so is the GDP – and that's not good, because the GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced within that territory. And when it is down – as it is for the second quarter of 2015 - that suggests an economic slowdown. The latest GDP estimate was released today along with the figures of inflation in July of 2015 – which, despite the fact that you may be paying more for groceries and foodstuffs, shows that overall, prices are falling. We'll let the experts explain it:

Jules Vasquez Reporting….

Inflation for July was down -1% when compared to July of last year.

That is based on a one hundred dollar so called shopping basket – and the statisticians say – it costs less than last year:

Angelita Campbell - Statistician II

"For instance if you were to purchase a basket of goods last year on an average of 100 dollars, this year it will cost roughly 99 dollars."

Now the hundred dollars in your family's shopping basket may seem be costing much more – and indeed the cost of foodstuffs like eggs and beef have gone up sharply – but the statisticians say that in the end it evens out:

Angelita Campbell - Statistician II

"We have meat going up, we have eggs going up. We see vegetables going down. There was a small increase as well in fruits. So I'm not saying individually things are decreasing. I am saying on an average; which a broader spectrum of all the prices that we take into consideration. It's show a decrease."

"They are fluctuations within each category. If you're spending more money in house and rental, obviously it increase; I said before. But collectively, you're spending less money on gas; you're spending less money on electricity. So there is an offset to that increase as well."

One of the main drivers of negative inflation is the lower cost of fuel compared to last year.

Angelita Campbell - Statistician II

"We see fuel prices decreasing by roughly 2 to 3 dollars in comparison to last year of the same period."

Still, Belize, Costa Rica and Panama are three of the only countries in the region to show negative inflation in July 2015.

In trade, the imbalance between imports and exports continued to grow – and the import bill was higher than ever:

Mrs. Marilyn Pinelo-Lee - Economic Statistics Manager

"Belize imported goods totalling 1.2 billion; an increase of 50.3 million or 4.4% from the same period last year.

Exports were down – and not just oil exports either:

Mrs. Marilyn Pinelo-Lee - Economic Statistics Manager

"Crude had the largest share in decline; amounting 41.3 million, due to decreased production and lower world market prices. Citrus experienced a decline of 13.2 million attributing to decreased exports."

And that carried over to the Gross Domestic Product – which contracted in the second quarter of 2015.

Jefte Ochaeta, Statistician I, SIB

"For the months of April to June 2015 compared to the same period last year, total production of goods and services within the country if Belize fell by 1.6%."

Now for the first half of 2015 there was a cumulative increase of 2.7% in the GDP; but in this second quarter, the main drop was in the secondary or manufacturing sector – that's the one in yellow.

Jefte Ochaeta, Statistician I, SIB

"We found that the decrease, the largest decrease was in manufacturing and oil and mining; which was around 10.9 million dollars less than what was produced in 2014. Citrus concentrate was almost half less from what was produced in last year."

And if you are really into the numbers, you can find more at the Statistical Institute of Belize Website.

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