Email

Print

It's the diplomatic document that dictates the terms and the text of the Belize-Guatemala referendum. We first called it a "compromis" in early September but since then the language has changed: It's now being called a "special agreement."

And while the name has changed, the song remains the same: it is the document which will be signed by both countries at the OAS in Washington within a month. It gives jurisdiction to the International Court of Justice to hear the dispute between Belize and Guatemala, and it dictates the very precise language - in both Spanish and English - for the referendum that will be held on the same day in both Belize and Guatemala.

The news tonight is that the agreement was approved yesterday by Guatemala's Cabinet. Belize's Cabinet did the same on October 21st. That means both nations are just a few procedural steps away from next month's signing.

The national negotiating team headed by Chief Negotiator Ambassador Fred Martinez held a press briefing today to bring the media up to speed on the present state of play.

Foreign minister Wilfred Elrington was there, and he told us that Guatemala's cabinet approval is a step forward, but he's just as ready for the possibility of two steps back.

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"We want a settlement of the dispute for the number of reasons which were articulated earlier. And so we are happy that this step has been overcome, they have taken this step. We anticipate that they will have many more problems with it than we are having. But, ahm, that is welcome news that at least the Cabinet have agreed unanimously to sign. But what is gonna happen in the future, nobody knows."

"But I am not optimistic that it is going to happen in the next four or five years. But we are going thorough the process because that is what is expected of us."

We also spoke to Chief Negotiator Martinez about the possible timeline that would be embarked upon once the agreement is signed in early December.

He also discussed very generally what is included in that agreement

H.E. Fred Martinez, Chief Negotiatior

"The special agreement really is the structured form by which both countries will approach the International Court of Justice. One, it sets out that both countries are agreeing to go to court and giving jurisdiction to the court for this specific issue. And the last part of the agreement is that both countries will consult with their people in a referendum, which is the most important part in a sense, as, with regarding the people. And that the referenda will be simultaneous; that is, on the same day in both countries. And the question to be asked of the people is also in that agreement."

"I'm not seeing any referendum taking place in either of the countries before July/August of next year. Once the referenda have agreed; let's say the people of both sides have agreed. Thirty days after the referenda you notify the Registrar General of the ICJ that you have now started your proceedings.
And so many months after that notification, Guatemala will have to present its case in writing then Belize has it's equal amount of time, let's say 12 months to present its reply, Guatemala has another six months to rebut that reply, then Belize has another six months to rebut that rebuttal. So you're talking maybe about three years of written procedures back and forth. Then the court convenes you to the oral procedures. That is when both sides go in front of the judges and argue their case with the presentation of all the legal battallion, of all their lawyers.
So that's another while. And then after the court takes time to deliberate, to find information amongst themselves. So, you're talking easily five, six years.

Jules Vasquez
Sir, and then finally, I know you are not on their negotiating team, but what will be in the Guatemalan claim? Do we have any idea?

Fred Martinez, Chief Negotiator
"No, we don't know what their claim in front of the ICJ will be because they have to consider carefully what documentation they have, what evidence they have, to substantiate their claim. Can you go to the ICJ and claim that all of Belize is yours? When you have recognized it as a sovereign state? And you want to make a state disappear? Can you go and ask only for a small piece? I can't judge for them they will have to be the ones to put their claim, but we're ready for whatever size they come with."

"We have every reason to believe that we have an airtight, very rock-solid case in front of the ICJ. I have no qualms; I have no worries about that. If it fails in a referendum, or if it fails to even reach a referendum, that means the process of going to court is finished and therefore the only plan B left is to continue talking to Guatemala to ensure that the security of our borderline is preserved."

A few notes, the public education campaign will start in Belize right after the special agreement is signed.

The big hurdle is seen to be Guatemala's Congress, which very much unlike Belize - is not controlled by its leader/cabinet. Doubters say it is not likely to achieve passage from that body, but really it's too early to say.