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And while the storm track from the national hurricane center in Miami does not forecast it going over the Belize mainland, that is just a forecast and this weather system poses multiple threats to this territory. Monica Bodden found out more when she visited the MET office in Ladyville this morning:

Derrick Rudon, Meteorologist
"The system is projected to move generally to the west with the low center moving west northwest. There is a high chance for it to develop into a tropical depression later today. So if that happens then it will pose a direct threat to Belize. If it develops or not it will bring us some rains. We are projecting at this time about 3-4 inches per day over some areas. It it forms or turns into a depression this afternoon it will be within our warning area and I am sure that flags will start going up if it turns into a depression. So we need to monitor it closely and listen to the latest from the weather bureau or from NEMO. The Hurricane Center gives it a high chance, a 70% chance of it becoming a tropical depression. Conditions are right for it, there is the upper level out flow over it, sea surface temperatures are warm and there is already a trough of low pressure there. There is a good chance for it to become a tropical depression."

Monica Bodden
"And it's travelling?"

Derrick Rudon
"Generally westward. The low itself is projected to move west northwest and to reach Belize or just north of us sometime late tomorrow. People living in low laying areas should be on the alert as well because for the amount of rain that we are expecting if that happens especially in a short period of time then there can certainly be flash flooding."

The National Emergency Management Organization issued an advisory this afternoon putting the Tropical Storm watch into effect for the entire coast of Belize. Mexico has also effected a Tropical Storm Warning for its Quintana Roo Coast, from Chetumal to Cancun.

The NEMO advisory states that, quote: "People along the coast and on the cayes are encouraged to evacuate early, once NEMO declares a Phase." It adds that, "Mariners and fisher-folk need to make early preparations to seek safe harbour, if the need arises. Motorists are advised that increased rainfall can cause flash flooding and render roads impassable." The general public is being advised to: Review family emergency plans and make early preparations to seek shelter if necessary. The next NEMO advisory will be issued at 9:00 pm.

San Pedro is the largest population center under threat - and its hotels also currently have 60% occupancy. The town's national emergency management organization held a meeting this evening to discuss evacuation plans. Right now the center of the system is approximately 310 miles east south east of that island town and the emergency organizations for San Pedro and Caye Caulker have been activated. We had a joint interview with area representative and Chairman of San Pedro's emergency committee Manuel Heredia half an hour ago - he does not recommend evacuation from the island.

Hon. Manuel Heredia, Minister of Tourism
"I personally believe that if it continues on the same trend then, yes, people from the lower areas should evacuate to higher areas on the island. But it depends also on people living in the lower areas what they want to do if they feel that they are not safe then they should use their discretion. In the meantime we feel that if it is necessary, probably, look for friends at higher grounds."

Jorge Aldana. LOVE FM
"So you are saying voluntary evacuation but within the island, nowhere off the island at this time."

Hon. Manuel Heredia
"Well at this time, yes, definitely within the island and not off the island. If anybody for some reason wants to move off the island on their own, that is up to them. That one with the tourists, I think hoteliers should take all the necessary precautions make sure that they have the adequate supplies, if anything. I don't think it will be something that will destroy hotels, but we never know, let them use their judgment."

Jules Vasquez
"Is it safe to say that right now you all taking a wait and see approach?"

Hon. Manuel Heredia
"That is correct, Jules, we are making sure that we have everything in place as confirmed to the NEMO group over here and that we keep the public informed as to what is happening every so many hours. At this point we have to be very cautious because you know everybody expected it to be lower than what it is. Most of the hotels here are at 60-65% occupancy, we have to be very careful as to how we disseminate information. I feel that they should just listen to the information, keep in touch with us and we will inform them accordingly."

San Pedro's emergency committee will meet again at 9:00 tonight and then again at 5:00 in the morning. The Belize City Emergency Management Organization also held an emergency session this morning to identify shelters in flood prone areas. So to cap it off, the coast of Belize is under tropical storm watch tonight; the tropical depression is 315 miles east south east of Belize city moving towards the WEST-NORTHWEST at close to 10 miles per hour with MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 miles an hour. NEMO will continue to generate advisories and we will air those on Channel 7 all weekend. But rain, storm or shine, we have confirmed that both Placencia and Caye Caulker are going ahead with their Lobster Fests this weekend. On a related note, the Belize Coalition to Save our Natural Heritage is still having its Hands Across The Sands observance on the Caye Caulker Beach.