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The Political Chess Game Begins
posted (October 16, 2013)
And so that's the state of play tonight: the PM abroad, Penner undecided, the future unclear.

Which gives us time to review yesterday – which was quite a day – in terms of history and the political back and forth. We start at the beginning, in Belmopan when Prime Minister Dean Barrow became the first PM or Party leader to urge a sitting member of the House to resign:


Jules Vasquez Reporting

In terms of grand entrances the leader of the Opposition got the nod as he walked into his press conference yesterday. And while the PUP party leader sat flanked by his deputy leaders - candidates and supporters were all around a very full room

The Prime Minister also sat with his Deputy Prime Minister and all of Cabinet - and while we did see a few party supporters, the NEMO conference room had the sense of officialdom, the PUP event was like a political rally.
Both events also centered on documents - the UDP spoke about that which cannot be disclosed,

Hon. Godwin Hulse - Minister of Immigration
"I do not want to be pressed on the details of names etc, because I will not give them out. I cannot."

While the PUP also had it's locked chest with 1,500 signatures.

The other PUP with documents under lock was Arthur Saldivar but during the press conference he was made to wait in the wings - the man with the most explosive material was inexplicably set to one side. Credible reports are that the party refused to take his matter on board at their event.

Rowland Parks - Reporter Press
"I understand from reliable sources that Mr. Saldivar wanted to release some documents today at this meeting, however, the executive, or people on the executive were not of the view that he should do so."

Hon. Francis Fonseca - Leader of the Opposition
"That was not a matter for our press conference today, that he will in fact hold a press briefing tomorrow."

But Saldivar wouldn't wait for tomorrow, he released the trove of documents haphazardly in the post press conference chaos and in - with Winston Smiling throwing them before the media - camera shutters fluttering and flashes flickering - as they were only passed before us very quickly.

After a 5 minute exposition and a brief dismissive interview from a visibly shaken Saldivar,

Arthur Saldivar - Passed Documents over to Police "Originally, it was intended for me to speak, but I am here supporting."

Commissioner of the Supreme Court Winston Smiling, though pre-arrangement with the Commissioner of police took the documents personally over to the Queen Street Police station.

And while they may have opted for the hammer instead of the ham - the PUP had no shortage of vitriol for the government.

Hon. Francis Fonseca
"The Belizean people need to know who are the ministers in this Cabinet who are engaged in selling visas."

Lisa Shoman - PUP Senator
"We know now what we did not publicly know some days ago, that there is institutionalized rot, that there is institutionalized extra-legal hustling and selling of visas."

And while there are certainly points to be scored on that front, the PUP lost its tactical anchor when the UDP unexpectedly turned its back on Penner.

Hon. Prime Minister Dean Barrow - Party Leader, UDP
"We can, in the circumstances no longer to continue to support Elvin Penner. We hereby invite Hon. Penner to resign his seat, then the procedures are set in motion for him to vacate the seat, and for a bi-election to take place."

For the PUP, it's hard to kick open a door the UDP have left wide open now that they will not defend Penner - and the party found itself proving a negative:

Hon. Francis Fonseca
"Obviously, the battle shifts. We will have to focus on a new candidate, obviously. So yes, the battle will have to shift, but certainly the UDP is not in a good position."

But the fact is that the UDP has exposed itself to great and irreparable harm with this unprecedented move - and the PUP can only gain - coming one seat away from tipping the power balance:

Prime Minister Dean Barrow
"A bi-election is a no-win proposition for us in this sense. We already hold the seat. All we can do in a bi-election is to retain it. We can't gain an additional seat, and of course, there is always the possibility that we could lose the seat. But, the point is that we are prepared to put it all on the line. We are prepared to contemplate the possibility of being one more seat down, if that is what is required for us to do the right thing."

Hon. Francis Fonseca
"This is no act of bravery today; this is no act of standing up for the people of Belize today. They waited on until Penner, in there view, do them no harm."

But Fonseca's logic does not hold up because Penner has not been secreted away into some witness protection programme - expectations are that he will be back - which is what makes Barrow's move an unprecedented and some might say a reckless risk to which could end up bringing his government within one seat of losing power.

But instead of talking regime change or a launching a series of public protests - the PUP found itself pandering to a home crowd with mostly reactionary talk based on Friday's logic before the Prime Minister changed the game.

Hon. Francis Fonseca
"What kept the Prime Minister from moving was Mr. Penner making it very clear to the UDP and to him, if I go down, all of us are going to go down together, and so they were affraid."

Now it's unto the battleground in Cayo Northeast where - depending on who you listen to - there will either be status quo preserved or a mighty upset:

Hon. Francis Fonseca
"And that tour was a complete failure, a complete flop. Dozens of Government vehicles, but the people of Cayo Northeast, and the people of Cayo stayed away from the United Democratic Party."

Prime Minister Dean Barrow
"Based on my tour this weekend in Cayo Northeast, we have every confidence that we can win a bi-election."

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