Elections were held one week ago - and many in the politics game are still trying to figure out what caught them.
For the UDP in particular, the election was a lot closer than they thought it would be - and two interesting studies can be made of Port Loyola and Belize Rural North.
In Port Loyola, incumbent and favourite of the Prime Minister, Boots Martinez slid 12 percentage points but still beat his opponent by 800 votes - down from 1,400 last time. In Belize Rural North, Edmund Castro overcame alienation from his party and government to handily defeat his opponent by 500 plus votes, down from 1100 last time.
Both survived significant swings and we asked both Castro and Boots Martinez about the election outturn. Castro says he did it in spite of being the odd man out in his party:
Edmund Castro - Minister of State (Transport)
"I think, like I have said early, the stone that the builder refuses, will someday be the key cornerstone, and if you listen to the results of the election, we were in Belize Rural North, the key corner stone in terms of forming the Government. I had no doubt - and I had related this information to you, I told the Prime Minister - I even said on Love FM last week - we will win 2 to 1, or a minimum of 500 votes. And it came out that we won by 500+, which was the minimum that I had predicted."
Jules Vasquez
"Your opponent said on election day, you 'rolled out' hard with big money."
Edmund Castro
"If 'Clear the Land' has big money, he better watch it next time, because I will blow him out of the water if he comes back, because everybody knows that 'Clear the Land' has no money. I am least among the flock in terms of dollars."
Jules Vasquez
"Now, you lost 12% in points. You went down from one of the UDPs with the greatest margin of victory, to an average margin of victory. You went down from 74% who voted for you, to 62% against a candidate that you yourself said was not very strong."
Anthony "Boots" Martinez - Minister of Human Development
"Politics is about numbers. Those percentages don't count. I won by 838 votes. I don't worry about percentage, you know."
Jules Vasquez
"But you had a swing against you."
Anthony "Boots" Martinez
"In a democracy - our democracy - percentage is just a part of a number. In my view, I wished that only 3 came out to vote, and I got 2. The main objective of politics in our democracy who gets the most, wins. So, percentage is just a part of a number. When you start to deal with percentage, you have to deal with a number. And in our democracy, arithmetic is the way forward. Whoever gets the most, wins, and that is very important to me. I don't worry about percentages."
Jules Vasquez
"But if you get another swing like that, you'll lose."
Anthony "Boots" Martinez
"How do you mean if you get another swing like that? If New York was where Big Bridge is, a lot of people a lot of people would be in New York. The main object is that I have won by a comfortable margin, not a close margin. You will tell me that about 800+ votes is small - comfortable, extremely comfortable margin."
The total swing against the UDP was about 6%, which is consistent with the average swing for the 6 elections since independence.
In fact in 2003, the swing against the PUP was about 6.5% - but the party still won convincingly because the swing against the UDP was low in the Belize district, but much higher out district...
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