Email

Print

Jules Vasquez has the overview:...

Jules Vasquez reporting
Many things were new in the old house today - a new speaker as well as 14 new members, 11 of them first time representatives, and three of them newly returned reps.

They would have to learn quickly: The business of the day was the presentation of the national budget - reams of pages of estimates and a one hour thirty three minute, 409 page budget speech from the Prime Minister - which he made clear was about discipline not austerity:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Mr. Speaker let me pause here to say, I had a press conference some time ago and I indicated that there would be a need for discipline for expenditure restraint and somehow that was translated by the media into some suggestion that we are facing austerity and hard times. In terms of what I read out - that sounds like any austerity and hard times to you Mr. Speaker? There is a clear difference between saying that we must achieve fiscal discipline and saying that we are going to be on the rock on any kind of austerity. This is distinctly not the position, so let us clear that up once and for all."

And indeed, the budget - while not lavish in its promises does promise to maintain and expand the pro-poor programs that Barrow has pinned as the pillar principles of his government:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"We will absolutely provide the resources necessary to fund the following high priority areas: Poverty Reduction and Social Protection - We will continue the uplift of the poor and the marginalized through our signature Food Pantry Program, providing basic nutritional support especially to the depressed urban areas that are currently breeding-grounds for crime and violence."

The budget shows strong government revenue performance even in lean times:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Central Government outperformed its budgeted estimates. The Government achieved a primary surplus that amounted to 2.3% of GDP, as compared to a budgeted figure of 2.2%; and posted an overall deficit of $31.7 million, the equivalent of 1.1% of GDP, as compared to a budgeted deficit of 1.6% of GDP. Mr Speaker, it is cause for celebration."

Barrow also beat his chest about sustained growth - even if it is low-level:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"I count it a matter of great pride to be able to report that Belize has been, and is, doing well economically. We have been able to maintain an average annual rate of GDP growth in excess of 2% since 2008 and despite the global crisis. The GDP is now forecast to grow by 2.0% in 2012."

But that global crisis ahs hit home for consumers who witnessed and increase in inflation.

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Domestic price pressures picked up slightly, underpinned by higher fuel acquisition costs, which pushed the annual average inflation rate from 0.9% to 1.5%. Except for "Household Goods and Maintenance" and "Clothing and Footwear", which recorded price declines, increases were across the board with the largest occurring in "Personal Care" and "Transportation and Communications."

And while oil prices were part of that increase when they go down in the coming year, so will government revenue which brings us back to discipline:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"In the face of declining oil revenues, and in the face of burgeoning interest and amortization payments, we will clearly have to exercise a heightened level of fiscal discipline and expenditure restraint as we seek to recapture that lost, pre-1998, era of UDP debt sustainability."

"One of the reasons we have constructed our budget with such discipline and expenditure restraint, is precisely to avoid the need for any new taxes."

"Fiscal and debt sustainability has become, for this Administration, even more of a priority. And that is why we are bent on success in renegotiating the terms of the super bond."

Oh, yes, the superbond - it was mentioned five times in the budget and got more ink than any other single event:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"The current interest rate on the Super bond is, in all the circumstances, obviously unsustainable. Indeed, all the elements have combined to create the Belizean equivalent of a "fiscal cliff."

"The step-up interest rate on the Super bond, now at a harrowing 8.5%, demands some BZ$93 million per year. This is in excess of 3% of GDP at a time when international interest rates are at historically low levels. The imperative for restructuring is therefore irresistible."

And while the bookish budget lacked sweep or vision - the PM did manage to pull one major project out of the bag:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Our Administration had announced, some time ago, the in-principle commitment of the Government of Mexico to finance the construction of a new basketball arena and multi-purpose facility at the current City Center location. Because Mexico has lent priority to the completion of the new bridge spanning the Rio Hondo and the related border crossing, the line of support for the Center has been delayed. But we fully expect our Mexican partners still to come through. If not, though, Government will undertake, with expected corporate support from BTL and the Social Security Board, to commence construction early next year. In this eventuality, a supplemental provision would be made in the Budget. The point is that one way or another we will get it done, the City Center Phoenix will rise, and the basketball facility it will house will be world class."

And while that is out there on the event horizon - the PM confessed that sometimes seeing the forest is difficult with so many trees in the way

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"The conundrum always is how to deal with the thousand myriad daily problems, while still thinking big; while still preserving and refining and renewing a comprehensive, articulate, even vaulting, vision."

"Mr. Speaker, I have tried to make clear that the UDP is about contemplation and implementation; about detail and daring; about hard slogging and sky walking."

Those airy heights were not reached today - but the hard slogging is sure ot come when the debates play out in two weeks.

The budget will be debated on July 11th, and 12th.

For those who really want to dig in, you can read the entire twelve thousand word presentation on the Government of Belize website.