The Gross Domestic Product or GDP, it's the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country in a given time period. And, generally, it is the most relied indicator to see how a country's economy is doing. Much political grist was made in February when the Statistical Institute of Belize pegged GDP growth for the 2013 calendar year at less than 1%. Well, there's more to be made now, after the Institute released its initial GDP and inflation figures for the first quarter of 2014 today. Here's what the number say:
Jules Vasquez Reporting
The GDP experienced negative growth in the first quarter, tumbling to -0.4% - only the second time on record that the first quarter has seen negative growth:
Glen Avilez - Director, SIB
"We see a slight dip in the economy in the first quarter when compared to the same period of last year of roughly 0.4%."
Avilez outlined the three main sectors driving the contraction:
Glen Avilez
"The central reasons or the main reasons for the contraction in the first quarter is attributed to three sectors, agriculture, mining - that is oil, manufacturing being the result of the poor performance in agriculture."
But, even though it is only the second time in 18 years that there has been a first quarter contraction, it doesn't mean the trend will continue:
Glen Avilez
"You should not read too much or try to extrapolate what has happened in the first quarter, to say what will happen for the rest of the year. There have been years where one quarter could make a huge difference. And so we have three more quarters ahead of us."
The steady decline in oil production continues to drive the contraction:
Glen Avilez
"Oil, the story remain that production is steadily falling. It fell by 25% in the first quarter, and we have production at its lowest level ever - and ever means going back to 2006."
There were sectors that did perform well in the first quarter, shrimp farming, electricity genratrion, tourism and construction - mainly public funded infrastructure work.
Glen Avilez
"Marine products have increased by five to six million dollar, and that is mainly due to the performance of shrimp farming."
Beer production, also showed a strong increase:
Glen Avilez
"Beer production was up by almost 7%, and this is encouraging, given that there is increased imports. We have Kubuli which is the new kid on the block and one would have expected that with the increase in imports of that particular beer, local production would have dipped, but instead we see an increase. Assuming that the population is growing at a constant rate, then I think that it is reasonable to assume that consumption per capita has increased."
And while the beer price is stable, the inflation rate for the first four months of the year is 1.6%.
Glen Avilez
"We have higher food prices, higher transportation costs as well as housing, water electricity and gas prices."
Going by municipalities, Orange Walk was the lowest and Dangriga was the highest.
Turning to per pound or per dozen prices of specific food items - comparing April of last year to this year, most were up. Topping the charts are items like ground beef, which is up 16% per pound, Cabbage up 44% per pound, red kidney beans up 20% per pound, yellow onions up 26% per pound.
While beef, sugar and sweet pepper were down.
Glen Avilez
"The increase in food prices to vegetables mainly, meats, the prices for meats were also up during the period. So, it is mainly to these two factors and the driving reason would be supply, relative to demand."
Moving to the trade balance - the imbalance continues to grow:
Glen Avilez
"Imports are up and exports are down, substantially."
This was most noticeable in the Corozal Free Zone:
Glen Avilez
"Which according to our figures imports into the zone have fallen by 18 million dollars from last year."
The SIB is currently compiling the results of its April 2014, Labour Force Survey which will be released in late June.
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