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Reports that this might happen have been swirling for two weeks now as the sugar standoff became more and more protracted: and today they were formalized when the Prime Minister held a press conference to say, he supports the larger cane groups if they want to go their own way:

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"The question therefore arises what to do, where to go in the face of this cataclysm that is overtaking the industry? I had a meeting yesterday with ASR and they made their position crystal clear: They will not open their factory doors and start a crop and open their factory doors unless the agreement they reached is signed either by the Committee of Management of the BSCFA or a sufficient number of branches and individual farmers of the BSCFA, such as would guarantee a minimum deliver of 500k tonnes of cane."

"Things are now at a point where the Corozal Division of the BSCFA met to discuss splitting completely from Orange Walk and registering itself as a separate organization. Several individual branches from both orange walk and Corozal have talked about forming an alliance to go and jointly sign the agreement with BSI, start the crop and thereafter register themselves as new organizations."

"Those farmers and branches that are talking about getting together to sign the agreement with the BSI outside of the BSCFA…have a constitutional right to do so. That is both self-evident and clear as a matter of the 2010 Supreme Court order. And, government, if those farmers choose to exercise their undoubted right, will do whatever is necessary to vindicate that right."

"There has been talk of government calling an emergency house meeting on Monday to pass the amendments to the sugar act mandated by that 2010 Supreme Court order. That will not happen. And it will not happen for 2 reasons. If we have waited this long, we can afford to wait a little while longer. Also those that are determined to sign the agreement and start the crop do not need legislative changes to be able to do so."

"But there is no doubt that government in view of the frustration and prejudice that the impasse has caused is encouraging of these moves to have a crop. And there is also no doubt that once new cane farmer association are registered, government will at that time assuredly amend the act to comply with the court order and give express legal recognition to new associations."

"This breakup of the BSCFA which now appears to be imminent, is not a consummation that the government wished, is not a consummation that even now, the government wants to encourage. But it is also a position stated to make clear that since it appears that this will inevitably happen, government will at the point when it does materialize, if it materializes, perhaps the radicals will get some sense into their heads now and try to make up with those that are looking to break away and come together. But if it does materialize, when it materializes...government will effect the legal changes to enshrine into law what would have occurred as a matter of fact."

Mike Rudon, Ch5
"Is there any concern at this point that the decision by government to, so to speak, step back would result in some sort of mass action protest from certain sections of the cane farmers?"

Hon. Gaspar Vega, Deputy Prime Minister
"What type of protest?"

Mike Rudon, Ch5
"Burning of tyres, blocking the road - that sort of thing."

Hon. Gaspar Vega, Deputy Prime Minister
"Well, I haven't gotten that impression yet. I haven't gotten that message. I think it is clear that even within the cane farmers association, it is clear that what happened at the last general meeting was not what the majority of the farmers wanted. I am convince that would be a secret ballot done the results would be different. All of us throughout this entire country know the sensitivity of that industry and people are scared to have their cane fields burnt. They are not worried about tyres, they are worried about cane fields."

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Government is stepping very carefully, is moving very gingerly because at all cost we want to preserve the peace and while we speak out in support of those that want to go their own way and have a right to go their own way, government does not want to appear to be some sort of agent provocateur... we don't want to be responsible for any declaration of internal war among the farmers. The complete opposite is true and so we state our position, but we make the appeal. Those that still don't want to sign, don't sign, but allow those that want to sign to sign in peace."

And they man they would sign up with seems to be Arturo Hernandez Jr. He's a past chairman of the BSCFA Committee of Management and the present leader of Group A of the San Estevan Branch - which is the largest of the 18 cane producing branches in the north.

He's leading the charge to break away from the BSCFA and has reportedly attracted large grower groups to support him. Now, until we see an independent group actually sign with BSI, we'll wait and see how serious his effort it, but the Prime Minister did take it seriously today when he presented Hernandez's letter as proof of a strong and viable move towards a new association:..

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"The deputy handed me a letter addressed to me and signed by the past chairman of the committee of management and present leader of Group A of the San Esteven Branch which is responsible, he says, for the delivery of over 70k tons of sugar cane. I believe they are the largest single individual branch. And he says I am requesting your support in the amendment of the sugar cane act to allow an open system of cane delivery whereby other associations groups and individuals can deliver sugar cane to the mill. Presently the BSCFA is the only recognized bargaining body which can negotiate the delivery of sugar cane. However, a good number of directors and cane farmers are of the opinion that the BSCFA which as you may know has lost its credibility with fair-trade, is comprise of a small group of individuals who are manipulating the situation for their own benefit. I, he says, have met with a group of directors from other branches and together we have summed up over 500,000 tons of sugar cane that can be delivered right away so as to get this industry back on its feet."

Jules Vasquez
"Group A of San Estevan, the chairman is Hernandez?"

Hon. Gaspar Vega, Deputy Prime Minister
"Arturo Hernandez."

Jules Vasquez
"Is he a relative of yours?"

Hon. Gaspar Vega, Deputy Prime Minister
"He is my nephew."

Jules Vasquez
"Is that why he might be inclined to send a letter of support?"

Hon. Gaspar Vega, Deputy Prime Minister
"Actually, probably that did help. But I must tell you like all those other farmers, he is one that has huge commitments with the bank and his kids and that is why he is taking that position."

Reports say Hernandez is moving to form alliances with other branches including the fledgling Sugar Cane Producer's Association which is a group out of Corozal linked to St. Francis Xavier Credit Union. Again, we'll have to wait and see whether those rumored alliances actually take shape, but we know that movements are definitely afoot.

Today in Orange Walk, the Chairman of the BSCFA committee of management Ezequiel Cansino - who is from San Estevan - admitted that even he does not stand on very solid ground with the association he chairs:..

Ezequiel Cansino - Chairman, COM of BSCFA
"If San Estevan Branch, by tomorrow decides to sign out from BSCFA, I have to automatically resign from this association. On other hand I don't think that if San Estevan does the decision to sign as an association apart from BSCFA, it will be the complete break up of BSCFA. Because there are other branches that are willing to stay with BSCFA. So, BSCFA will start maybe from zero again. Right now, this talk about Xavier Credit Union, to my understanding, they are having meeting with BSI and if they decide to sign this agreement what will the rest of the cane farmers do. Obviously, we will have to go behind them. The same thing will happen for the rest of the branches that will stay on BSCFA - they have to follow the other branches who decide to start the crop."

"San Estevan is the first one maybe have taken the step to do this and yes I know that some branches have said the same thing, that they are willing to do the same. Up to now I can't say exactly how many of them, but yes we have branches that they are willing to join San Estevan. That is most likely government's blessing for the breakup of the association, but we ask our colleague not to break down, to keep on the association, so maybe we can show the country that maybe we can stand up again."

A very dire state of affairs for the BSCFA - and this evening, there are reports which say that as a last ditch effort to keep the splintering BSCFA intact, some inside the organization are considering signing the agreement with BSI. Again, this is just a report, but the situation is very fluid, so we are monitoring it closely at this hour.

Now, on the other side, as you'll see in an ad on this newscast, the opposition PUP is calling on government to use the power of the Sugar Industry Control Board to force BSI to open the factor and mill the cane. Today the Prime Minister repeated, with greater emphasis that he cannot do that:..

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"It is government's unalterable conclusion that it is impossible, impossible to compel BSI to accept cane deliveries and mill and market cane against its will. Any such attempt would not just be illegal, but would, as was made clear to me, cause the manufacturer to immediately shutter their factory permanently and leave Belize. Those individuals that campaigned against the agreement and that continue to assert against all reason that we can force BSI are thus grossly misleading the farmers. They have imperiled the industry and have exposed to hardship and possible penury the very farmers they say they are trying to help."

Jules Vasquez
"What do you expect to come out of the mandamus hearing?"

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"I expect it to fall flat. But I am telling you, since you talked about courage and since you accused us of a lack of courage, that, we make clear that we are not relying on what we believe will be the decision of the court and there are always litigation risks. We have said from the start and maintain our position that we are incapable if we are to act in accordance with the law forcing BSI to accept deliveries. But we have gone beyond that, we have said not only is it impossible to do that, it is also undesirable to do that."

And the legal document that took pre-eminence for the Prime Minister today was the Court order from May of 2010. That's the Wilfredo Magana constitutional case when Justice Oswell Legall upheld his submission that cane farmers cannot be compelled to be a part of the BSCFA and pay it a cess because it limits their constitutionally guaranteed freedom of association. Justice Legall ordered that the law has to be changed to reflect that but in a move to protect the BSCFA Government never moved on it. So as it stands, the sugar act has been ruled unconstitutional. Today the PM told Audrey Matura Shepherd, good luck taking that to court:..

Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"How the lawyers representing the radicals will move the court for an order under an act that is unconstitutional, defeats me. And one of the reason the act was found unconstitutional is precisely because it only recognized the BSCFA as the sole representative of cane farmers. The amendments mandated by the court include the removal of the BSCFA as sole grower representative and substituting, therefore, any and all organizations, such as the United Cane Farmers Association, which brought the challenge to the act in the first place, and the Corozal Sugar Cane Producers Association. In these circumstances it seems to me to be foolishness on top of foolishness, nonsense placed upon stilts for these people to argue that will get the court to aid their illegal bid to pressure the SICB. The question might fairly be asked, can an entity declared unconstitutional under the act, even have standing to move the court?"