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It will remain that way until fuel tanker ships arrive next week Tuesday night. So, on Wednesday supply should be normalized. But, many are asking how did it come to this? Is it a problem with PDVSA (Pe-De-Ve-Sa)? Or is it happening because APBEL - the Alba Petrocaribe Belize Energy Limited is now in charge of ordering fuel? APBEL is run by a government appointee not a fuel industry veteran - and so we asked that government appointee, John Mencias squarely today if it is his fault:..

Jules Vasquez
"Because of your lack of expertise, your lack of experience, I should say. You did not forecast that March would be the busiest highest volume month for fuel demands. You mis-forecasted and therefore we have the shortage. How do you respond to that?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"Well, it's a misconception. Things have not changed in terms of who is responsible for forecasting local needs from the time previous to the start of the PetroCaribe arrangement and now. It is still PUMA Energy. So, we are not responsible at all to forecast. That is solely the domain of PUMA and the wholesalers in the local market."

Jules Vasquez
"So then, if it is a case of mis-forecasting, it would have to be PUMA's fault and not yours?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"If it is a case of mis-forecasting, yes."

Jules Vasquez
"Is it such a case of mis-forecasting?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"It would be hard for me to judge. You are right. I am not familiar with how the market moves. So, I will not be able to tell. I have heard from officials from PUMA that demands spike suddenly in March. Much more than they thought and we have evidence of that, in terms of what was required of us. PUMA is reporting a demand in March, so far, is trending 30% higher than usual and I guess as a result of that, we have this situation on hand, exorbidated of course, by the fact that we are delayed in sending the shipment from Pedevesa to Belize."

Jules Vasquez
"When it arrives on Tuesday night, it will be over a week late by then?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"Yes, it would be say a week, 1-2 days late - about 9 days."

Jules Vasquez
"Right. Now, is this a function of a failing PetroCaribe initiative? Is it something you can reasonably do jump on the phone with Venezuela and say look, you guys are really affecting me and I need that thing on that ship last night."

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"Yes. It has happened before, that they have brought up a shipment earlier. Yes, that have done that before and we have been behind them in this particular case, but they have been unable to respond."

Jules Vasquez
"I can't imagine that fuel would be late to go to Citgo in the United States, which is really the breadbasket of the Venezuelan oil operation. Inevitably, as there are more domestic pressures in Venezuela, perhaps, they have to give lower priority, to fuel shipped out on PetroCaribe."

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"No. I don't think so. I think what's happening, the particular nature of the program is that all the fuel is sourced from one refinery. And if there is an operational malfunction or some other problem, you would have this kind of thing happening."

Jules Vasquez
"This break in the chain of supply, have given so many people hope that the government will see that reliance on PUMA is create for an unstable situation."

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"You can't use one instance and come to that conclusion. It's just one instance."

Jules Vasquez
"Is it wise to rely on a single supplier, as a general rule of thumb?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"I don't think the problem is whether it's a single supplier or not. I think it is one of inventory management, storage capacity at the depot."

Jules Vasquez
"Should the government invest in its own tank form and invests a day when it can move away from enriching PUMA which still acts as the storage and the importer effectively?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"I think that is a question for the government indeed."

Jules Vasquez
"Would you so advised?"

John Mencias, Deputy Chairman - APBEL
"Just at the moment, no."

PUMA is bringing a twenty thousand barrel tanker and government will bring a thirty thousand barrel tanker. Both are on the way - but until they arrive rationing and periodic shortages will continue.