The so called Chavissimo - which loaned Belize and other Caribbean and central American countries hundreds of millions of dollars under the Petrocaribe programme - has an uncertain future - after the Venezuelan opposition won a majority of the seats in congress in elections on Sunday. International news reports say the opposition coalition won at least 99 seats in the 167-seat legislature. Chavez's ruling United Socialist Party won 46 seats. They had been in power for 17 years - during which time they pushed what is called the Bolivarian Alliance, known as ALBA - the vision for the social, political and economic integration of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean - which gave rise to Petrocaribe and other initiatives such as Mission Milagro.
President Nicolas Madura has accepted defeat for his party, calling the results a right wing counter revolution.
Now, bear in mind that these were not presidential elections, and Maduro remains in that post until 2019. It will be left to be seen if he can outmuscle an opposition controlled congress. But, if the opposition coalition wins 13 of the 22 undecided seats, it would have a supermajority which it can use to initiate a referendum to revoke Maduro's mandate.
So while all this swirls in Caracas, in Belmopan, Petrocaribe is just trickling in right now - and on Friday the press asked the Prime Minister about the prospects for its future:...
Reporter
"In terms of the Petrocaribe funds, we heard one of the ministers say that they hope that things go well in Venezuela. Do you continue to hope that this is going to remain a bountiful source?"
Hon. Dean Barrow, Prime Minister
"Of course I continue. But remember I've already said and I will repeat, first of all even if the program continues the fact that the flows are greatly reduced, doesn't appear to be likely to change anytime soon. The OPEC meeting is today and everybody knows they are not going to increase production, so that's not going to happen. So we will continue to get far less than in the Halcion days - in the glory days, that's number one. And the number 2, in terms of what we would get, assuming the program continues, there are other uses now in which the money must be primarily put. I had promise when there was all the controversy that those who are concerned about the debt, could be reassured that if we continue to get a decent amount for a while longer, we would reach the point where we would want to deploy some of the monies to engage in a super bond buyback. I've also said that even before then, we want to use funds to ensure that we can if not easily, more easily than otherwise satisfy the arbitration award that we know is coming down the pipe. I introduce today a bill to raise the threshold on treasury notes and treasury bills. That's in contemplation of the award that we will have to pay. We will need to be issuing government paper I imagine in any case. But to the extent that there are Petrocaribe funds available to help us meet the compensation payments - that will be the first call on any Petrocaribe flows that continue to come in."
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