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Diplomatic Doublespeak Versus A History of Provocation
posted (March 18, 2016)
So, while you have to make up your minds on who you choose to believe about tensions in the Sarstoon River, you also have to decide which narrative to accept on the true picture of Belize/Guatemala relations at the borders.

The current Government is pushing a message that the two countries are co-existing as friends which respect each other, but the BDF records from the soldiers stationed at the Cadenas Observation Post say otherwise.

So, is that a contradiction? That's what our Daniel Ortiz examined today. Here's his report:

Daniel Ortiz Reporting

Rowland Parks - Amandala Press
"Prior to the exursions or trips to the Sarstoon by the BTV, there was not knowledge that Guatemala had revised its claim and decided to claim the entire Sarstoon. When exactly was the Government of Belize appraised of this new development."

Hon. Wilfred "Sedi" Elrington - Minister of Foreign Affairs
"I like to say you know - and it saddens me, and some people criticize me for it. The claim on the Sarstoon was made on September 21, 1939. Nothing has changed. Nothing has changed! This is a claim that existed from the September 21, 1939, when the Guatemalans repudiated the 1859 Convention unilaterally. So, the premise of your question is baseless. The claim was made - and I hope I don't have to tell anybody this again."

So, this dispute is long standing, and no resolution is clearly sight.

But, the present day politicians have been on a relentless campaign to convince citizens in both nations, but certainly Belize, that the territorial dispute has been handled with next to no hostility on both sides. It's a relationship of peace and respect - according to them:

File (July 28, 2015)

Hon. Wilfred Elrington - Minister of Foreign Affairs, Belize
"The Guatemalan government, certainly those that I met have been very respectful of Belize and have been very insistent that they don't want any violence. They don't want any disharmony between us. They want us to live in peace and harmony."

H. E. Carlos Raul Morales - Guatemalan Foreign Minister
"The most important thing is to be friends, is to build the peace between both countries, is to avoid the fighting from one country to the other one, because this is not going to take us to nowhere. Minister Elrington mentioned in other regions they have critical problems and we do not have this problem in this area. Because we have a region of peace."

Hon. Wlifred Elrington
"We're a model for the region and maybe for the world."



But...contrary to all that peace talk, it's been revealed as sort of a dirty little secret that the very level-headed BDF soldiers have been turning the other cheek for a decade in the Sarstoon, in response to repeated aggressive engagement from the Guatemalan Military.

In order to prevent an exchange of fire between the two militaries, BDF soldiers at the Cadenas Observation Post have had to show extreme restraint when confronted with provocative tactics from the Guatemalan military, dating back to December 2006.

Back in August of last year, Belizean civilians finally got to experience just a taste of what that's been like for the first time


File: August 26, 2015

River of Fire
"Yow! Come back this way!"

Geovannie Brackett
"Come back, come back!

Passenger
"Come back!"

River of Fire
"They're hauling you!"

But, don't ask the Foreign Minister about that report. Though he makes it clear he is an authority on all things related to the Territorial Dispute, has not seen that very serious report where the BDF conclude that the Guatemalans seem to want to provoke an armed conflict.

Daniel Ortiz
"In light of this, have both governments been downplaying the seriousness of that situation?"

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"I can honestly say to you that you have better strings with the BDF than I do. I've never seen that report."

Daniel Ortiz
"Sir, it was commissioned shortly after the first confrontation between the Belize Territorial Volunteers and the Guat forces down in Sarstoon. So, the logic would continue that the security apparatus of this country should have been able to see this report and to digest it to know what has happened from 2006 all the way up to 2015."

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"I am not saying anything against that. I am simply saying that I have not seen it."

Louis Wade - Plus TV News
"Is there a disconnect between your government and the BDF as it relates to information taking place on the Sarstoon that lead your government to blame the BTV as opposed to the simple escalation of Guatemala's interest in the Sarstoon?"

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"Ahm, I'm on record as saying that as far as I am aware, personally we never had these problems until territorial volunteers started going there. If you have 10 incidents in 16 years by people who going up a river everyday - 10 incidents in 16 years and none of it fatal. That's remarkable. That's absolutely remarkable."

Yes, it is remarkable, but if the BDF have been 100% fair in their assessment of the Guatemalan aggression, Elrington's spin on the lack of violence is omitting the key feature: that the BDF soldiers avoided drawing their weapons in the Sarstoon River.

So, it's hard to figure out if the Foreign Minister lives in a fairy tale world where the territorial dispute is just a diplomatic problem, or whether he is blissfully ignorant of the decade of tense military engagements in the Sarstoon, or if he's only just choosing to assume the best of our Guatemalan neighbours….the best of them, and the worst of the media:

Mike Rudon - Channel 5 News
"If all the politicians are being mature and believe in peace and all the militaries believe in peace, where is the aggression coming from?"

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"Maybe from the media." (Smiling)

Mike Rudon
"It's a serious question..."

Hon. Wilfred Elrington, Minister of Foreign Affairs
"No, it's a serious answer. In 16 years I told you we had 10 incidents. Nobody dead. Between military people you know."

That's a viewpoint that his Guatemalan counterpart has shared with the Belizean press.

FILE: July 27, 2015

H. E. Carlos Raul Morales - Guatemalan Foreign Minister
"Today, what you have is goodwill of both countries, of both ministers, to avoid any kind of incidents. Why people insist to confront both countries? What you will win? More news? That somebody die in the island, in the caye, as a result of the confrontation of both armies? You want it? No, nobody wants it. We want peace and I am very clear in this message - we want peace."

Preaching peace, but playing at provocation is a curious game of diplomatic doublespeak that is likely to inspire profound public misgivings in any ICJ solution.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry will re-engage the Guatemalan delegation after the Easter Holidays on a proposed extension of the Confidence Building Measures to the Sarstoon River.

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