Last week, a very telling BDF threat assessment report was leaked to the media and, by all indications, it shows a pattern on provocation in the Sarstoon by the Guatemalan military going back at least 10 years. The report concludes gravely that from the BDF's observation, the aggressive tactics of the Guatemalan armed seem designed to force a conflict. The Foreign Minister told us he hasn't read the report; the Prime Minister said he'd gotten a synopsis, and today we asked the BDF commander if he stands by the findings of this report. Here's what he said.
Brig. Gen. David Jones - Commander, BDF
"It may be seen as a provocation, but it is as bad as what being portrayed in the media. There have been instances where I have mentioned there are conflicting orders. They believe that the entire river belongs to them and we believe that half the river belongs to us and it's just a matter of understanding and something that requires a political solution and then I don't believe there will be any conflict. I am confident that both militaries are working peacefully together. It is just an effort where our diplomats need to work out for things to work smooth. What was mentioned in the assessment was comments by one of our officers. That his comments and it should be treated as such. I am telling my view; we believe that it can work peacefully. There has been instances that can be interpreted as provocation. That's the way our soldiers view its and the officer was right in making that assumption and also making recommendations in there. But from my perspective and from the BDF perspective, we are fully aware and based on the fact that I've met the new general who is committed to ensure that there is peace and de-escalation on any tension in the area. I am sure we have smooth running of things going forward."
Now if you follow the Belize-Guatemala discourse, you might say this sounds a bit like deja vu. That's because in 2007, the heads of military from both countries crafted a gentleman's agreement to keep the peace in the Sarstoon. The agreement spoke of joint patrols, as a form of confidence building measures. But that only lasted for about a year. In 2009 tensions began flaring up again. So does that recent history bode poorly for this recently established line of communication between the BDF commander and his Guatemalan counterpart.
Brig. Gen. David Jones - Commander, BDF
"I wouldn't say their communication won't last. As I've said, I've establish good communication with the new general. A gentleman agreement was apparently reached. I haven't seen signed document as such. We've heard about it, but there isn't any signed document as such and we believe that the general at that time did sit-down with the previous general at that time and the reason was to deescalate the situation in the area and I believe that was achieved and it's just something that needs to continue current. SO whenever new generals change, that dialogue needs to continue so that the cooperation continues."
Emanuel Pech
"What's your assessment on the threat assessment that has been catalogue over the past 10 years? Are aggressions heightened up? Does it influx? Has it remained stagnant? What's you interpretation of that threat assessment?"
Brig. Gen. David Jones - Commander, BDF
"It has increased since more civilians have gotten into the picture. Since we have civilians going into the Sarstoon, they view it as provocation. So we've seen more Guatemalan military in the Sarstoon since then and that is what has changed - the increased military in the Sarstoon. But apart from that, the sporadic incidents that have occurred, those are probably expected to continue unless there is a diplomatic solution."
Emanuel Pech
"But it definitely has increased due to the fact that civilians are going into the water."
Brig. Gen. David Jones - Commander, BDF
"It has increased since civilians started going into the Sarstoon, it has."
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